Expectation for steel market in 2021

COVID-19 brings a significant impact on the world economy which can be called a big changes not seen in a century. After the COVID-19 break out in large-scale, China quickly take a serial of measures, such as closing city, launching a series of proactive fiscal policy and monetary policy to reducing economic impact by COVID-19. The market for steel structure shows high supplying,high demanding and high inventories throughout the year 2020.The trend for price is rising. The mainly driving factors is demand and cost. 　　Macro:The expectation for economy in 2021 is the overall inflation steadily rising and monetary policy steadily loosing. 　　The economy is excepted to recover all year round. The tendency is strong in the beginning and later become weak. The inflation are steadily rising. PPI is stronger than the CPI. Monetary policy will become more steadily. Domestic policy may be more strict thane Europe and the United States.The trade relationship will be improved.The vaccine will be vaccinated and the influence of COVID-19 will be reduced. 　　Supply: steel production in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.1 billion tonnes. 　　Because of postponing of capacity displacement and new capacity concentrated releasing. Steel production in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.1 billion tonnes. Compared with the production 1.05 billion tonnes in 2020, the output of 2021 increased 50million tonnes, annual output growth of 5%.   　　Demand: the real estate industry is affected by demanding. The performance in the first half is better than that of second half. Infrastructure work continues , manufacturing recovery continues, and it is good for plate. 　　2021 is the first year of "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan", and pay close attention to next year's two sessions.After "Three line"policy,the starting, construction and sell work for real estate enterprises will speed up . Due to the demanding pushing, the performance of real estate enterprises in the first half is better than that of second half. The will for purchasing land of real estate enterprises will fall, and in later period the new commenced area may be declined. Infrastructure construction grows steadily and the year-on-year growth is expected to more than 3%. The projects of Xiongan New District and high-speed rail push forward steadily.The implementation of funds get attention.Manufacturing will continue to recover. Under the background of binary and overseas demand recovering, machinery, automobile manufacturing and household appliances industry will continue to maintain a good trend.The growth of 2021 is expected to 3% within which manufacturing growth is 5%, and construction is 2%.   　　Cost: The supply of iron ore and coke is on tight balance, and the cost rigidity is extremely strong.       　　Expectation 　　The year-on-year export growth for crude steel production and steel is increasing. Under the background of binary in domestic ,the demand remains relatively strong.The performance of manufacturing is better than that of the real estate. The performance of plate is better than that of long-tern products.In the first half, the support of cost still remains.And in the second half, the change for supply and demand of structure should be pay attention.The supply demand is increased. The expected production for crude steel in 2021 is more than 1.1 billion tons.The exports will be increased after overseas demand recovery. Under the background of binary in domestic,the demand of domestic is expected to be in?great.The performance of manufacturing is better than that of the real estate. This situation is better for plate.The support of cost still remains in the first half. And in the second half, the supply and demand of structure should be pay attention.The expected profit rate growth in 2021 is 10%.